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تحليل العلاقة بين الدورات الائتمانية ودورات الاعمال في ظل تطور الصناعة المصرفية == Analyzing The Relation Between The Credit Cycles And The Business Cycle Under The Development of The Banking Industry
Author name:
احمد حسن عطشان البديري
Supervisor name:
عبد الحسين جليل عبد الحسن الغالبي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Master
University:
University of Kufa - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Najaf
First pages:
07T4318 - p.pdf
Abstract:
The studies relating the fiduciary and its cycles occupied an increasing attention in the last few years within the frame of searching the suitable fiduciary level to achieve the optimum economic growth and avoid the negative effects of its cycles that might be a result of the business cycles or the opposite , especially that there are many complexities in addition to the economic, social and political effects of the business cycle as well as the increased effect of the Credit cycles under the modern development in the bank industries. World countries , especially with the developed economic , still suffer from the effects of the Credit cycles since the great depression in 1929 ,or even a long time before it, to the current financial crises ( real estate mortgage) , which involved it to put , within the frame of its economic and social aims, fiduciary conditions and standards to limit or restrict the negative effects on the bank system that resulted from the sequence of the Credit cycles which have a strong relation with the business cycle. Decreasing the fiduciary conditions within an expansionary monetary policy might resulted in an economic growth that might lead the business cycle to its highest degree, but that might cause economic problems if the loans is not paid for any reason , hence the responsible persons of the banks turn to strictness and that in its turn decreases the consumer and investment expenditure and leads to the regression of the business cycle. The business cycle, in its greatest turn point increase the expectations for the investors so the demand of fiduciary is increased motivating the banks to increase the fiduciary it grant. With the smallest turn point the demanded fiduciary decreased. Basing on what has mentioned before , the relation between the Credit cycles and the business cycle , it is a mutual one , each one might caused the other , or the causative relation might go on the same direction. There are no many studies to investigate the effect of these cycles on the economic activities or the relation between them , so this study aims at defining this relation and its direction paying the greatest attention to the Credit cycles due to the scarcity of the Arabic writes in this field. For this reason we shall study the two cycles in Japan , the United States of America and Iraq. The study aims at showing the effect of the Credit cycles, under the modern development in the bank industries ,on business cycle , as well as the effect of Credit cycles on the bank system. The study hypothesizes a mutual relation between the Credit cycles and the business cycle ,restructure a great number of banks with Credit cycles. The study depends on two methods of analyzing ; the descriptive analysis of the Credit cycles via the relating variables in Japan , the United States of America and Iraq, and the quantitative analysis according to modern mathematical and quantitative analyses methods to measure the Relation between the Credit cycles and the business cycle and define its direction. To prove the hypothesis , the researcher depends countries with developed bank systems that affected the economic activities : - Japan , the United States of America and Iraq. The reasons of selecting these countries are that it submitted to the Credit cycles or the business cycle or both of them, and the availability of the data and information that are demanded for the research. The study time scope is varied from country to another according to the cycles time, the fiduciary and the business , or according to the available data, in general the study, for the three countries, covered the period from ( 1990 to 2010).
