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الدولة والتنمية في الوطن العربي محاولة لاستباق التغير العالمي في ظل منهجية التحليل المستقبلي == A State And Development In The Arab Homeland An Attempt To Forestall The Global Change By Prospective Analysis Methodology
Author name:
حسن لطيف كاظم الزبيدي
Supervisor name:
مازن عيسى الشيخ راضي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Doctorate
University:
University of Kufa - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Najaf
First pages:
07T4328 - p.pdf
Abstract:
The state in the Arab homeland is suffering problematics in its concept came from deformed birth during the colonialism period. This deformation birth make the state characterize with many features which make it unable to do its role efficiency. It is : unstable, authoritarian, central, overdevelopment, renter, dependence ,undemocratic, and relative autonomic state. So that, it is difficult to accept that its role to achieve development will be positive in the future based on our view toward the past role and what it done in the last thirty years ago. It is difficult on this state to deal with many problems which came from global change and what this change lead to reduce the economic role of the state in over the world. The international system today witnessed attempts to reform the state and the Arab mast try to dealing with this change.There are many variables determined the future of the states in the Arab homeland : population, natural resource (water and oil), globalization, information and telecommunications revolutions, national and international polices and the relationship with USA. All these variables will play role in the future formation. This study tries to examine how the regional state will deal with these variables in the future, how these variables will effect on it economic role and how it will successes or fail in solving the problems which facing it in the future.This study focus on the view of future by built three scenarios prospective the future during the period (2003 - 2030). The main scenario known in prospective studies as diractal scenario put to display all the affections which accumulate till the middle of prospective period. The second scenario will be as branch of the main scenario and it will also as diractal scenario. So that, it will display the appearances of crisis which increased during the main scenario to transfer the second scenario. The last scenario known as reformational scenario which display reformation program as the researcher imaging, on the based governance concept which stand on a compound relation among state, privet sector and civil society
