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تحليل وقياس العلاقة السببية بين عرض النقود والناتج المحلي الاجمالي في بلدان مختارة (السعودية ومصر) للمدة (1980 - 2006) == Analysis of The Measurement of Causality Relationship Between Money Supply And Gross Domestic Product In Countries Selected (Saudi Arabia & Egypt) For The Period (1980 - 2006)
Author name:
عامر عبد الله مجيد
Supervisor name:
محمد صالح سلمان الكبيسي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Master
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T3817 - p.pdf
Abstract:
تعد الدارسة القياسية التي تناول العلاقة المتبادلة ما بين المعروض النقدي والناتج المحلي الاجمالي ذات اهمية كبيرة لدول المنطقة للاسباب التالية : 1 - تعد هذه الدراسة محاولة اولية لوضع الملامح الرئيسية للعلاقة السببية بين كمية النقود والنشاط الاقتصادي.2 - افت | This econometric study which deals with an inter - relationship between money supply and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is of great significance for the countries under consideration for the following reasons : 1. The study is considered an initial attempt to place the main characteristics for the causal relationship between quantity of money and economic activity.2. Lack of Arab library, in general and Iraqi library in particular, of comprehensive research and information in such areas that make this topic difficult and time - consuming; even lacking total understanding of its elements and the requirements of the subject matter and its accuracy.This study is, therefore, intended to achieve the following objectives : 1. Studying development of money supply and GDP in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.2. Use of Hsiao and Granger econometric tests to find out the causal relationship between money supply and GDP for countries under study.The study is based on the hypothesis : existence of a significant, bilateral, causal and functional relationship between money supply and GDP in the economy of Saudi Arabia, on the one hand; and a unilateral, causal relationship between the two variables in the Egyptian economy, on the other.The research arrived at the following conclusions : 1. Strength of the relationship between money supply as a dependent variable and GDP as an independent variable and vice - versa; that there is a bilateral, causal relationship in the Saudi Arabian economy.2. Strength of the effect of the relationship between GDP on the money supply - and not otherwise - that is; there is a unilateral relationship concerning Egyptian economy. According to the results of causal test, we conclude that changes in the quantity of money do not help in explaining changes in the GDP; while changes in the GDP does help in explaining changes in the quantity of money. Therefore, quantity of money cannot be used as a tool for economic policy to affect real economic variable in the Egyptian economy.3. What characterizes Saudi economy is its dependence on petroleum resources that reinforce various petroleum - related and non - related economic activities. While Egyptian economy is distinguished by the diversification of various productive and service sectors but because of the many impediments that faced Egyptian economy as of late the country could not achieve its prosperity as Saudi Arabia did.Finally the researcher recommends : 1. Saudi Arabia should diversify its economic structures to avoid the effect of shocks as a result of its reliance on one resource; oil for example, or as a result of international economic and political problems that are more severe on one - sided economies.2. Despite tangible achievements of Egyptian economy, particularly after the nineties of the past century, there still is dire need for diversification especially in more vital sectors which contribute effectively in the accumulation of money supply in export, financial and banking sectors besides tourism that help promote balance of trade accounts.3. The necessity of taking advantage of globalization by both countries in attracting foreign investments and revitalizing Arab Economic Union Agreement and draw on financial surpluses from rich Arab countries for investment purposes.
