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استخدام الانموذج الاحصائي للتنبؤ بالطلب السياحي والايرادات في اتخاذ القرار لتحقيق التنمية السياحية في العراق == Using The Statistical Model To Predict The Tourism Demand And Revenues In Decision - Making To Achieve The Tourism Development In Iraq
Author name:
عدي صبيح لازم الكعبي
Supervisor name:
جواد كاظم خضير الموسوي
General topic:
Tourism sciences
Specific topic:
Tourism and Hotel
Degree:
Doctorate
University:
Mustansiriyah University - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Tourism And Hotel Management
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
08T89 - p.pdf
Abstract:
تعد دراسة التنبؤ بالطلب السياحي واحدة من اهم موضوعات النشاط السياحي لما له من دور في معرفة حجم الايرادات السياحية المتحققة التي بدورها تعمل على صياغة القرارات المناسبة لتحقيق التنمية السياحية، ولذلك تضمن الاطار المنهجي للدراسة مجموعة من التساؤلات والافتر | The study of Prediction of the Tourist Demand is one of the most important subjects of Tourist Activity because of their Role in Tourist Revenue generated knowledge which in turn serve to formulate appropriate Decisions for Tourism Development, and thus ensure the methodological Framework for study group questions and assumptions have been formulated according to the specific questions of the nature of the problem and its importance and its spotlight section to two aspects of the theory and the Philosophical subject of study was designed to elucidate the theoretical Philosophy and Intellectual goals because it represents a new twist in the studies Tourism in Iraq despite that the Amerindians ' faces theoretical ideas and away from duplication and complexity and followed the best and easiest methods to address the folds until the theoretical and Philosophical Frameworks have to mimic the applied side of chime and conclusion, and this led to the results to be an honest expression of what the researcher wants to. Thus addressed, among other problems, most notably, the Tourism sector in Iraq suffers from a lack of appropriate Statistical Standards for measuring Tourism Demand actual and expected future, adding that the agencies responsible for tourism with weak random flop and in all areas of the Tourism Industry, and the lack of accurate data on arrivals into Iraqi territory. So the importance of the research developed through solving problems mentioned and try to manipulate Mathematical methods. Accordingly, the research aims to find out the most important statistical Models for measuring Tourism Demand and Income variables is preparing internal and external Tourists in Iraq, and also learn the strengths and weaknesses of Tourism Development Programms and monitor the movement of Travel and Tourism, the Interior and Foreign Affairs and trying to provide data for Decision Makers. Then , the limits of the temporal research starts with a period in 2009 - 2012, when the limits of spatial research has specialized in land and sea ports of entry and air. The research approach adopted the statistical analysis and the use of Mathematical Models are consistent with the nature of the subject research , the more Scientific Methods of interpretation capacity and precision : the Exponential Smoothing model in Time Series and Box - Jenkins Model (ARMA) and Grey Systems Model. As a researcher of some hypotheses to arrive by slow Development of Tourism in Iraq and Religious Tourism and Tourism was affected by the political and security situation in the country, with some Tourist Revenue represented by Tourism in Iraq Demands Arab Tourists more than meet the Demands of foreign Tourists, and the Tourism Revenue increases over time in proportion to the increasing number of Tourists. this hypothesis also relates to the quality of Tourism and Tourist Services, especially the Religious Tourism is a strong attraction for Tourism in Iraq and the interest of the Tourists coming to Iraq on commercial markets and exhibitions. The study has produced a range of theoretical and practical conclusions, in theory show that Tourism Demand into Iraq is significantly represented by the Religious Tourism and Tourist Demand during the previous three decades had suffered great fluctuation and instability of the first Gulf war (war of eight years) and the second Gulf war and the subsequent economic blockade and international isolation, most recently the third Gulf war, and that the Tourism Sector in Iraq lacks upper and middle management persons with specialization in Tourism Sector and this has led to poor decisions taken, in addition to the lack of Tourist Policy and its strategic vision for the sector as the Economy and the country as a flop, random is the characteristic inherent to this sector. In the applied side, indicating that the appropriate Model for the Prediction of Demand Tourism Series and is the first order of Grey Model GM(1,1), while showing that the appropriate Model for prediction of Tourism revenue is the Autoregressive model of first order ARMA (1, 0 ).
