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تحليل العلاقة بين النفقات العامة والنمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة (1990 - 2013) باستعمال دالة الاستجابة المستحثة == Analyzing The Relationship Between Public Expenditures And Economic Growth In Iraq For The Period (1990 - 2013) By Using Impulse Response Function
Author name:
قيس انيس جحيل العقابي
Supervisor name:
عبد الكريم عبد الله محمد المشهداني
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Master
University:
Mustansiriyah University
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T4278 - p.pdf
Abstract:
تعد موضوعة العلاقة بين النفقات العامة الحقيقية والنمو الاقتصادي من المواضيع المهمة والتي كثر بها الجدل والتحليل والنقاش بين علماء الاقتصاد على مدى عقود من الزمن.وفي الجانب النظري ورد هناك منهجين مختلفين في الادبيات الاقتصادية المتعلقة بالعلاقة بين هذين | The relationship between public expenditure and economic growth has been an important subject of analysis and debate among economists for decades. There are mainly two different approaches in the literature concerning the relationship between these economic magnitudes. These two well - known approaches are “Wagner’s law “ and “Keynesian hypothesis. Therefore, Wagnerian and Keynesian approaches represent two alternative viewpoints in explaining the causality between government expenditure and economic growth. While Wagnerian approach states that, the causality runs from economic growth to public expenditure, according to the Keynesian approach, the direction of causality runs in the opposite side. The purpose of this study is to analyses the causality relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Iraq over the period (1990 - 2013) using time series data , and Impulse Response Function (IRF). Impulse responses trace out the responsiveness of the dependent variables in the VAR to shocks to the error term. The impulse responses of economic growth and public expenditure are normalized to have a contemporaneous impact of one - percent by dividing each shock by the standard deviation of the respective fiscal shock. These impulse responses are then divided by the ratio of the shocked fiscal variable and the responding variable, where the ratio is evaluated at the sample mean. Therefore, the rescaled impulses for the responses of economic growth to the public expenditure shocks can be interpreted as giving the reaction of the responding variable, in percent of economic growth, to a fiscal shock of size 1% percent of economic growth. This study differs from the other studies aiming to test these relation in Iraq in some ways. First this study attempts to analysis the relationship between economic growth and total public expenditures and Public expenditures for health and education in order to search for evidence supporting relation between them , Second, this study investigates the two sub - time series ( 1990 - 2002 ) and (2003 - 2013). Data analysis revealed that a Double causal relationship (two way) from a real public expenditure to economic growth and economic growth to the real public expenditure for period(1990 - 2013), which supports (Turan Yay, Huseyin T., 2009), and that the relationship with the economic growth of public expenditure on Health and education are related to one - way from economic growth to public expenditure on health and education which supports the Wagner law. Economic growth response to unexpected shocks incident in real public expenditure reflects the negative impact (Exp) response to the economic growth have a positive impact on most of the ten periods from the study but had negative levels for the second period. The expenditure on health and education in response to shocks in the rate of economic growth have the opposite effect in the ten periods, but had the lowest levels of negative periods (fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth) Economic growth rate in response to the shock in the total health and education expenses are non - existent, and negative at the beginning of the first period of the year, but it takes continuous decline to reach the lowest value in the second quarter and the negative trend continues to the end of the last period The real public expenditure in response to a positive shock in real GDP are non - existent at the beginning with a bullish trend to end up in the second period. Then begin to fluctuate, starting from the third period to reach the lowest level in this period. GDP in response to a positive shock in real public expenditure be positive and influential impact on the error of the variable interpretation (GDP) in the first period and then begin to decline and negatively in the second period and then take swings between positive and negative for the rest of the study periods. The study concluded with a number of recommendations
