تقييم تاثير التغير المناخي العالمي على درجة حرارة الهواء في العراق باستخدام نماذج المناخ == Evaluating of the Impact of Global Climate Change on Air Temperature in Iraq using Climate Models
Author name:
میلاء محمد كاظم الجبوري
Supervisor name:
قیس جمیل الجمیلي | بدور یاسین حمود
General topic:
Meteorology
Specific topic:
Atmospheric Sciences
Degree:
Master
University:
Mustansiriyah University - College Of Science - Department Of Atmospheric Sciences
Language:
English
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
32T110 - p.pdf
Abstract:
Global warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global temperatures. Natural events and human activities are believed to be contributing to an increase in average global temperatures. This is caused primarily by increases in “greenhouse” gases such as Carbon Dioxide (CO2). The aim of this research is to use simple climate mathematical models to investigate effects of various parameters, functions, and components of the climate system on the temperature rise. Also it aims toward the use of the output of complex climate models to explore the future rise of temperature over Iraq for the 21st century. The results indicated that the increase in diffusivity causes an increase in the heat flux towards the poles causing the temperature to increase in the polar regions and sub polar regions and to decrease in the tropics and subtropics regions. Solar radiation plays a major role in the climate system. It was found that a change of +/˗0.1 of its current value could led the Earth surface to be ice free/totally covered with ice. The results showed that changes in upward longwave radiation can mostly affect polar and sub polar regions. The effect of Hadley cell is to increase the heat flux towards the poles and therefore increasing temperature in these regions and reducing it in the tropics. The results for the simulation of land/ocean combinations for different initial temperatures showed that the combination of most amount of water cover was closest to the initial temperature for all initial temperatures and the combination of most land cover was the farthest distribution from the initial temperature. Analysis of the output of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models for Iraq showed that global warming will affect Iraq in this century. For the mid - century the temperature will be increased by 0.5 to 2.5 oC and summer months will be the most affected time of the year. The results suggested that by the end of the century temperature will be increased by 3.5 to 4.5 oC and also summer months will be the most affected time of the year. Comparison of the 16 models and three scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) of the IPCC Baghdad showed that for mid - century the scenario B1 gave the lowest increase of temperature for all months, while the scenarios A1B and A2 gives the highest increase of temperature for most of months for all models. For the end of century, it was found that in this period the scenario A2 gives the highest increase of temperature for most of the models, while scenario B1 give the lowest increase temperature for most of models.
