انتاج الطاقة الكهربائية لتلبية الطلب الكلي في العراق : دراسة تحليلية للمدة 1970 - 1999 == Production of Electrical Energy Fulfill The Total Demand In Iraq Analytical Study For The Period (1970 - 1999)
Author name:
مازن سلطان عزيز ابو صيبع
Supervisor name:
زهرة حسن عباس التميمي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Doctorate
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T3992 - p.pdf
Abstract:
The study aims to put general lines for the strategies to develop Iraqi electricity and rationalize of economic resources against attaining the demand for electricity in future through analyzing the economic and institutional variables which concern with electricity capacity for the period ( 1970 - 1999). this case would be done through three directions represented in nature of exploration of production resources , type of exploration of potential and available capacity in production stations of electricity and consuming of resources. In order to establish the aim of study and testing the validity of the hypothesis which says " The development and growth cannot be realized without production electricity energy using advanced technology fulfilling the requirements of all economical sectors and be the necessity of fulfilling personal requirements" The study reached for some suggestion & finding which the important of them are mentioned as following : 1. The rate of waste for natural resources are very high in general & specially for production of electricity.2. Declining the efficiency of exploitation of stations capacity for production of electricity during the period of study & decreasing of it in year 1999 contrasting with ( Alsco) countries, despite the a vial ability of public elements.3. Iraq needs for electricity for about ( 10030.4)MW in year 1999 and would be increased annually for about (3%)at least , if it would stay on the same electricity resources capacity per capacity in year 1999.besides the important of economic & social welfare.4. Declining of efficiency of using of electricity resources in Iraq through the years of study. that could be appear from the economic .measurement & the imperical studys such as such as : a. Validity of estimated regression relation among the rates of the growth of individual share for the electricity and for the GDP in constant prices for year 1980 by using test DF.b. The Regressions relations appeared that the rate of equilibrium among efficiency variables in long range , about(0.483). This rate is very low , so it is matching with declining of satisfying rate from electricity for different objectives.c. The results of testing of estimating relationship between behavior of dependent variables in short rang by Error correction mechanism , that there would be positive effect for changing of the independent variable against the dependant variable in short range & nearly about (0.73) from the differences among the real values and long rang & value of dependent variable would be corrected in every year by correcting the route of dependent variable growth slowly in accordance with its variables in short rang. That is of course would be related to the declining of the rate of satisfaction from the electricity & medium of productivity as a result of depending Iraq upon the revenues of oil exporting.d. Decreasing of flexibility of economic resources rationalization for Iraq against availability of electricity as a result of increasing of exploitation of electricity resources efficiency contrasting with rationalization of economic& social cost for electricity
