التنبؤ بالارباح المستقبلية بالاعتماد على الارباح والتدفقات النقدية التاريخية : دراسة تطبيقية في سوق العراق للاوراق المالية == Prediction Of Future Accounting Earnings Depending On Historical Accounting Earnings And Cash Flows - Applied Study In Iraq Stock Exchange
Author name:
سعود سعد جاسم الغزي
Supervisor name:
علاء عبد الحسين صالح الساعدي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Accounting
Degree:
Master
University:
University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Accounting
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Basrah
First pages:
07T4628 - p.pdf
Abstract:
his study aims to find out to what extent the use of accounting earnings or cash flows in predicting future earnings and identify any of the two variables (cash flows and Earnings) have better ability in prediction, also aims to determine if the accuracy ofprediction of future earnings is influenced by the type of sector to which the company belong .To achieve the objectives of the study, we tested 53 companies out of 83 registered in the Iraq Stock Exchange, which accounts for 64% split by the number ofeconomic sectors, we have been relying on choosing of the published financial reports for the companies which form the sample of study for the financial periods for the period (2006 - 2012),and in order to reach the goals of the study we used the random walk model with growth rate, also the main and sub hypotheses were tested using the T test, and also using Mean Square Errors (MSE) to determine and identify which of the variables have more accurate prediction capability .The study was split into four chapters, where the 1st chapter is allocated to the theoretical side , which was divided into three parts the 1st one focused on the concept and importance of financial reporting ,the 2nd part talked about to the concept and importanceof financial prediction and the 3rd part assigned to prediction in accounting figures. The 2nd chapter focus on Previous Studies and the study methodology, as the 1st part addressed previous Arab and foreign studies, which addressed the issue of prediction offuture earnings and cash flows, in addition to addressing the situation of the current study, where study methodology came in the 2nd part.The 3rd chapter dealt with the practical side of statistical analysis in order to test hypotheses of the study. Finally, the 4th chapter focused on the most important conclusions and recommendations reached by the researcher from his study.1. Possibility of using historical accounting numbers (earnings and cash flows) in the prediction of future earnings, which leads to improve the usefulness of accounting information which are disclosed in the financial statements also improve the decisions making process which based on that information.2. The findings of the statistical tests conducted on the study sample confirmed that predicative ability of historical accounting earnings is higher than historical cash flows when they are used to predict future earnings (EPS) in the Iraqi environment. The reason for such finding may r the argument that accrual - based earning mitigates timing and matching problems inherent in cash flow ,so historical earnings considered a better indicator of future earnings than cash flow.3. The difference in the type of economic sector would have no impact on the ability of any of the historical cash flows, as well as historical accounting earnings when using them to predict future earnings.1.Its important that users of financial statements are interested in the prediction process because its provide information about the future as the prediction process play important role through The researcher has reached a number of conclusions and the most important ones are : Based on the reached conclusions, the researcher recommends the following : supplying the decision - maker with appropriate base to build his future expectations and also important role in facilitating the decision - making process as it reduce the degree of uncertainty surrounding the components of the decision.4. A predictive income statement and a predictive statement of cash flows need to be apart of in the annual statements of Iraqi listed companies.5. Issuing bulletins from Iraq Stock Exchange to increase the awareness and attention of investors ,creditors and analysts to the importance of net cash flow per share variable as a predictive measure and work on the development of the technical staff through training courses adopted by the Iraq Stock Exchange, which contributes to help market participants to use statistical methods and quantitative models as effective scientific tool to predict the future in order to evaluate the performance ofcompanies and its financial positions.
