مستقبل مكانة العراق في التفكير الاستراتيجي الامريكي == The future of Iraq's position in American strategic thinking
Author name:
عمر عبد الجبار كامل الحياني
Supervisor name:
لبنى خميس مهدي الربيعي
General topic:
Political Science
Specific topic:
Strategic Studies
Degree:
Doctorate
University:
Al-Nahrain University - Faculty Of Political Science - Strategy Department
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
14T746 - p.pdf
Abstract:
Importance of the subject : The study of the process of American strategic thinking about the case, but it is the study of the phenomenon of ever - changing, the United States of America to adopt its strategy depending on the nature of each stage pass out, so the future of our study of the status of Iraq in US strategic thinking begin studying the goals of the United States changing in Iraq, according to each down to goals and future determinants of its strategy in this country phase.There is no doubt that Iraq has an advanced position in American strategic thinking, Iraq and by its very nature geo - strategic (political, economic, and security) is a variable influential and influenced by the countries of the regional neighbors and thus on the overall US interests in the Middle East that combines strategic location and stores the energy features, this is perceived by the United States which formulate strategies one after the other.It also highlights the importance of our study of the subject, in many respects, and perhaps most important is the timing, as the current phase is one of the most intense phase of the evolution of the US approach toward Iraq forestry because of the security crisis experienced by Iraq in its fight existential terror that still occupy parts of it, and also because of the development of Middle East fragile region and in this context, this study will try to monitor and identify trends in US strategic thinking and the type of performance that US administration, current and future, to deal with the situation in Iraq in accordance with the objectives of the current strategic interests of the US or to be reformulated if what I thought the US make a lot of efforts to assert its influence in Iraq and gain a foothold permanent military presence have it.This study runs from the specific problem of the effect that there was an officer and future US vision on Iraq factors, particularly the (site of Iraq in the US war on terrorism, the need of the United States for Iraqi oil, the rise of the Iranian role, the interest of the United States in the Middle East) Despite from the fact that these factors are within an environment characterized by liquidity and the pace of change at short ranges, the interests of the United States and its role in Iraq and the size of the threat to make the decline in the status of Iraq is not an option acceptable to the United States of America in the future.According to the problem, this study aims to prove the validity of the hypothesis that there is a direct correlation between the level of place occupied by the Middle East region in the priorities of the US administration and the extent of its involvement in its files that (the war on terrorism, to contain Iran's rising influence, energy security, the security of traditional allies States United American) and the prestige that supposedly enjoyed by Iraq, and for the purpose of proving this hypothesis has to be to answer a number of questions : - What attributes of US strategic thinking and characteristics that distinguish it?What is the importance placed on Iraq in US strategic thinking ? - - What are the main changes witnessed by the strategic direction of the US towards Iraq since the end of the Cold War? - What are the main internal and external variables affecting the future of the prestige enjoyed by Iraq in US strategic thinking ?In light of the foregoing and through our treatment of the subject of the future of Iraq, the US position in the strategic thinking of the elements of this status enjoyed by Iraq is made up of several aspects, according to available upon this country and of the advantages of the elements of power : Politically, the Iraq of the US view is a political gravity force insurmountable within the ranges of the Middle East region, especially if re - training course and adjust the behavior of its political system in the framework of cooperation relations or equivalent US influence, which will make a loop allies of the United States in the region , the economic importance of Iraq constitute oil wealth founded on, and perhaps this side is better explains the intensity of American strategic engagement in the case of Iraq exclusively in the region, on the other hand, the United States control over Iraq's oil and the Persian Gulf gave way to determine global production volumes and volumes of supply and oil prices so on, in making the development of other countries and growth of the economic subject indirectly American supervision, or security interest - the military of Iraq in US strategic thinking, Vtaatoty of the nature of the security environment of the Middle East where there are in the first place, and what is available upon Iraq the stature and impact in achieving military balance of regional security in this region is stable, the one hand, Iraq's position reflected in the security environment, territorial what constitutes a bridge vital links the Gulf states with Iran, it has Iraq has always been an important factor in the inter - relationship between Iran and its environs, as pose security agreements signed between Iraq and the United States in the content of public basic foundation of US military strategy in order to make Iraq a partner of the United States and among its allies in the war on terror.To determine the future of Iraq's place in American strategic thinking depends on the beginning of a series of issues that have a role in tipping Iraq's position or not in the formulation of a comprehensive US strategy for any US administration to come, whether or democratic republic, and most of these issues are : - The status of the Middle East in the American strategy : that the location of Iraq in the heart of the Middle East means self - evident that his place in US strategic thinking is the mortgage status of this region as a whole in the priorities of the American administrations, we have observed that the Middle East, the status of the decline in the US strategy for the South East region Asia - Pacific throughout the era of President Barack Obama has contributed to the decline in Iraq's position in the priorities of this administration, and therefore it would revive the trend of US interventionism in the affairs of the Middle East, again, that Iraq due course to the top of US strategic priorities. - The need of the United States for oil : the United States consume at present a quarter of global oil production, even though it has only 3 percent of global oil reserves, according to the statistics of 2015, saw the years between the years 2013 to 2015 US demand growth oil exceeds demand in China's growth (), so the United States consider to Iraq in the long term as a vital source for the future of energy in the world, as is expected, that Iraq would be his "biggest contribution to a great extent for the growth of global oil supply." , so the extent of the US need for oil will affect how much weight will have in the US strategic thinking. - America's war on terror : In the event of any US administration has decided to increase its involvement in the fight against terrorism, Iraq will remain until the near future is at the center of this war, in the sense that he must be the main square of her, and this intervention will reflect positively necessarily on Iraq, the status of the US American United, one hand is seen by many in the American research and study centers that the jump made by terrorist organizations in 2014 was the result of a full US withdrawal and non - official from Iraq in 2011, the study concluded two scenes prospective potential, namely. - that the United States increase its support and its military presence in Iraq to help in its war on terror in order to reassert its influence and role in the whole Middle East region and to prevent international and regional powers of the competition hegemony or fill US void in Iraq, and also confirmed that the US ambassador former Zalmay Khalilzad that opportunity back US influence in Iraq, large, and that the current data indicate that helping Iraq restore the military balance, the most important steps of the possible adoption by the US administration to support and strengthen relations with Iraq.to see the status of Iraq's decline in US strategic thinking, if it wanted the next US administration apply what he called Ian Bremmer, in his book "Great Powers : three options for the US role in the world," strategy "US Independence", which aims to reduce the United States of its international obligations dramatically, and that revolves around the inside first, and reduce military expenditures, in addition to withdrawing completely from the Middle East, where he sees that it is time for the decomposition of the responsibility for solving the problems of others, the United States is the US is depleted from during its obligations to defend allies
