استخدام تحليل سلسلة ماركوف في توزيع قوة العمل : دراسة حالة في وزارة المالية == Use Analysis of Markov Chains In The Distribuation of Labor Force Case Study In Ministry of Finance
Author name:
علي صباح هادي
Supervisor name:
محمود مهدي حسن البياتي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Strategic Planning
Degree:
Higher Diploma
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T3879 - p.pdf
Abstract:
نظرا لوجود مشكلة في الموارد البشرية في اغلب الموسسات الحكومية نتيجة ضعف التخطيط في العهود السابقة مما ادى الى وجود اختلال في قوة العمل (فائض , عجز ,او فائض في جانب وعجز في جانب اخر في ان واحد) فقد حاول الباحث الاجابة عن تساؤل حول امكانية استخدام طريقة تحل | There is a problem in human resources in most of the Government Institutions as a result of poor planning in previous eras, which led to an imbalance in the labor force (surplus, deficit or surplus on one side and deficit on the other side at the same time) researcher has tried to answer the question about the possibility of using the method of Markov chain analysis to identify needs in the workforce for a future for the purpose of facilitating human resource planning process to be integrated with the strategic planning process for government organizationsThe research also aims to clarify the link between the stages of human resources planning and the process of strategic planning through the situation in the Iraqi Finance Ministry study also provides a description of the analysis of Markov chain and used to predict the numbers of staff who remain in functional scores as well as to prepare those who will move to a higher level or leave the job in a period of time OBTAINED future based on data from the Ministry of Manpower in the center where the researcher took a sample of data for employees who obtained a BA and who starts career list them, when appointed in seventh grade and a certain competence for the years 2013 - 2014 databaseWas built matrix Markov prospects for transitions between grades and using Japman equation - Kolmugerov to predict matrix transition probabilities for two more years, as well as for the four years to come, and by knowing the initial distribution for each degree of functional (ie, the proportion of the number of each class to the total number of samples) were predicted to prepare staff the end of 2016 and the year 2018 for each degree of functional from seventh grade to first grade The paper also presents the idea of the skills that are summarized in the transfer of skills Bank (which dispense them NGOs) to him until they make use of them in other organizations for the purpose of reducing the social impact of the restructuring of companies and government organizations have been taking data for the case of a virtual hold Markov chain analysis, and then predict the numbers of staff for this the default state for a period of four years to come and perform calculations equations to determine the numbers of staff that will stop then the likelihood of transitions between the different grades down to the (equilibrium) of the number of employees that may help in achieving service role of government organizations in the community, The researcher came to several conclusions and recommendations of the most important recommendation using Markov chain analysis to predict the numbers of staff who move between grades for two years and four years to come and for different categories and grades, as well as between the sections that can move the employee among them
