تاثير قواعد السياسة المالية على فاعلية السياسة النقدية في العراق == The impact of fiscal policy rules on the effectiveness of monetary policy in Iraq
Author name:
شاكر حمود صلال العبيدي
Supervisor name:
محمود محمد محمود داغر
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Doctorate
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T4779 - p.pdf
Abstract:
The study aims to find a relationship between fiscal discipline expressed in Fiscal Policy Rules and the effectiveness of monetary policy expressed by the supply of money and the exchange rate in Iraq for the period 1990 - 2015.The study starts from the supposition that the fiscal policy disorder has a significant impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy in Iraq, and through the adoption of fiscal rules can eliminate or reduce the impact of the financial turmoil, especially that Iraq depends on oil revenues to cover general budget expenses, making its economy vulnerably to shocks and its impacts on the reduction of general revenues of the state and thus increase the budget deficit and the accumulation of public debt, which have a reciprocal effect on the variables of monetary policy.The structure of the study was divided into four chapters to verify the hypothesis of the study , the first chapter discussed the entrance of the conceptual to the rules of fiscal policy and its relationship to monetary policy, the second dealt with the turmoil of the fiscal policy in the Iraqi economy and the possibility of achieving financial sustainability, the third chapter dealt with the prospects for the application of fiscal policy rules in the Iraqi economy, while the fourth chapter dealt with explaining of the methodology used in the standard analysis and display the results of the study, as used the test of (ARDL) and (VECM) to analyze the relationship between fiscal policy rules, which represent fiscal discipline and variables effectiveness of monetary policy (money supply, the exchange rate), and these models are the latest models in econometric , which depends on the stationary of the time series, and then test the joint integration whether there is a long - term of relationship between the variables or not and test the causal relationship of those variables.We reached the result of accepting the hypothesis that the absence of any fiscal discipline under the financial policy rules in Iraq which mainly affected on the effectiveness of monetary policy (money supply, exchange rate) for the period (1990 - 2015). Through a review of the evolution of the monetary policy variables (money supply, exchange rate) during the study period (1990 - 2015), we observed that the money supply and the exchange rate are linked with positive and proportional relationship with government spending, so we marked that the first half time of our sturdy’s time period that the rise of deficit, was covered by the new cash release, which in turn led to an increase in money supply and exchange rate (decrease in the value of the Iraqi dinar), while thebsecond half period of the study, it was marked by a higher government revenues associated with oil revenue which in turn stimulated the government to increase its spending, which in turn led to an increased in money supply without the exchange rate because of the ability of the Central bank to maintain the level of the exchange rate by using foreign currency auction and this has been confirmed by the results of the econometric study. The study recommended the adoption of fiscal rules benchmarks which contributed to determine the maximum acceptable level of government spending by GDP growth as a fiscal rule, because of the prominent role of the spending during the years of study on the money supply and inflation. As well as addressing the structural imbalance in public spending items and items of general revenue and reduce dependence on oil revenues to cover the current expenditure, and work to establish a sovereign fund for accumulating the realized financial surpluses in the years of abundance and investing them to develop the financing sources of the public budget .
