تحليل وقياس العلاقة بين اسعار النفط واسعار الصرف في دولة مختارة مع اشارة خاصة للعراق == Analyze And Measure The Relationship Between Oil Prices And Exchange Rates In Selected Countries With Special Mention To Iraq
Author name:
حسين حسب الله علوان
Supervisor name:
ايمان عبد خضير الغريباوي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Master
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T3548 - p.pdf
Abstract:
The relationship between oil price and exchange rate is important, especially in oil exporting countries. Because the fluctuations in oil price lead to instability of the revenue of oil exports, which leads to an improvement or decline in the net trade balance, as well as international reserves. In countries that adopted floating exchange rate regime, the improvement or decline in the net trade balance cause appreciation or depreciation in their currencies, while countries that depend fixed (or managed floating) exchange rate regime, the rise or fall in international reserves (as expected) lead to appreciation or depreciation in their currencies.This research discussed and analyzed the relationship between the oil prices and U.S. dollar exchange rate, as well as the relationship between the oil price and exchange rate in three oil - exporting countries (Algeria, Norway and Iraq), which adopts different exchange rate regimes. The unit root test, co - integration test, vector error correction model and Granger causality test have been adopted in this research to check the existence and direction of this relationship. The results were as follow : there is long run relationship between U.S. dollar exchange rate and oil price. The VECM and Granger causality test refer to dollar as the explanatory variable (i.e. the dollar fluctuations lead the changes in oil price). Whereas there is no relationship between oil price and Algerian dinar exchange rate. but in Norway there is long run relationship between oil price and krone exchange rate, according to VECM and Granger causality test the oil price is the explanatory variable (i.e. the changes in oil price lead the fluctuations in krone exchange rate). In Iraq there is long run relationship between oil price and Iraqi dinar, Granger causality test refer to one direction causality run from oil price to Iraq dinar exchange rate (i.e. the changes in oil price lead the fluctuations in exchange rate). On other hand, VECM refer to two causality long run relationship (i.e. both oil price and exchange rate cause each other), the latter result is not accepted by the economic logic, because it is not possible the IQD affect the crude oil prices
