قياس وتحليل اثر السياسة النقدية في بعض متغيرات الاقتصاد العراقي للمدة 1995 - 2013 == Measure And Analysis The Effect of Monetary Policy In Some Variables of The Iraqi Economy For The Period 1995 - 2013
Author name:
علي صبيح حسون
Supervisor name:
هناء عبد الحسين محيميد الطائي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Master
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T3880 - p.pdf
Abstract:
The analyses of monetary policy according to various developments which required the analyses the course and curriculum of monetary theory and through the role of money in the economy.Some see that money is influence and causative element in economic development and economic activity in general and on the long term.Others see that there is a relation between money offer and economic development but it is not causative relation but it is complimentary relation.Occurrence of the change in the monetary amounts is not considered the basic elements that cause economic development but it is the necessary condition.As the monetary policy is one of the total economic instruments which could have a role in in achieving the economic stability in Iraq.Thus the Central Bank of Iraq must Activate its monetary instruments.This research started from the theory that " there is a dynamic positive relation between the influence of the monetary policy and some of economic variables represented by ( exchange price ,inflation rate, gross national production ,interest price ,money of supply , general price indicator ).This may be interchangeable influence and each one direct towards the other ".The importance of the this research comes from the analyses of features and direction of monetary policy in Iraq before and after 2003 and analyses and study the monetary policy with some economic variables in Iraq in the light of Central Bank independency as well as tin measure the influence of monetary of economic changes in Iraq in the period1995 - 2013.The most important conclusions we found in the study is that the central Bank has made many amendments on the interest rate (policy rate) for the purpose of reforming, development of the financial institution in particular, and to add a state of economic stability in general and to fight deflation and confronting the stock speculation. In addition to that and through the quantitative aspect the degree of responding to the general level of prices to the changes is (0.807) which means that the changes resulted in the GDP in percentage of %100 leading to a change in the general level of prices in rate of (%80.7). the general level response of the interest rate is (2.27) which means that the changes in the interest rate is (%100) leading to a change in the general level of price of percentage (%227.,) while the degree of response to the general rate of changes in the monetary supply is (1.080) which means that the change in the monetary supply is (%100) leading to changes in the general level of prices in percentage of (%108). That indicates the fact that the exchange rate has a role in effecting the general level of prices and the less important thing is that monetary supply influence the general level of prices which marks the weakness of the real sectors of the Iraqi economy. The most important recommendations are the Central Bank daily interference in the exchange rate for the purpose of maintaining the stability of the Iraqi dinar rate to confront the expectations of deflation. If the Central Bank does not interfere, then sever deviations will occur on the general level of prices and deflator pressures occur
