الخصائص الديموغرافية للسكان الحضر في مراكز اقضية محافظة واسط == Demographic Characteristics of Population of Urban Centers in Wasit Governorate
Author name:
قاسم محمد عبد
Supervisor name:
ناجي سهم رسن
General topic:
Geography
Specific topic:
Demographics
Degree:
Doctorate
University:
Wasit University - Faculty Of Education - Department Of Geography
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Wasit
First pages:
10T1720 - p.pdf
Abstract:
تهدف الدراسة الى ابراز الخصائص الديموغرافية لسكان المراكز الحضرية في محافظة واسط كونها من المناطق الواعدة بمقوماتها الطبيعية والبشرية لتحقيق مشاريع التنمية ، اذ لا يمكن القيام باي عمل تنموي الا عن طريق دراسة خصائص السكان ومقوماتهم في الماضي والحاضر وتوقع ما سيكونون عليه في المستقبل ، لذا فقد تم دراسة السكان ديموغرافيا للاعوام (1987، 1997 ،2014 و2015) واجراء الاسقاطات المستقبلية حتى عام 2027 . اعتمدت الدراسة الجداول الاحصائية والخرائط التوزيعية والاشكال البيانية فضلا عن العديد من العمليات الاحصائية والكمية من معاملات الارتباط والانحدار وغيرها من اجل دقة التحليل الجغرافي للظواهر السكانية وتفسيرها تفسيرا منطقيا للعلاقة بين المتغيرات التي تضمنتها الدراسة . توصلت الدراسة الى العديد من نتائج كان منها، ارتفاع نسبة سكان حضر مراكز اقضية محافظة واسط من عام لاخرى فبعد ان كانت نسبتهم (47,9%) عام 1987 من مجموع سكان المحافظة ارتفعت عام 2014 الى (48,6%) ، واستاثر حضر مركز قضاء الكوت باكثر من نصف نسبة سكان حضر مراكز اقضية محافظة واسط ، اثرت حركة النازحين والهجرة الريفية فضلا عن الزيادة الطبيعية في ارتفاع معدلات النمو التي وصلت الى (3,4%) . تميز حضر مراكز الاقضية باستقبالها هجرات متنوعة سواء كانت دولية (من سكان المحافظة الذين هاجروا الى الخارج) او اقليمية او محلية لاسيما بعد عام 2003 اثرت على الخصائص الديموغرافية لسكان حضر مراكز اقضية محافظة واسط . واظهرت الدراسة ان اكثر من ثلث سكانه في الاعوام (1987 ،1997 و2015) هم من فئة صغار السن (اقل من 15 سنة) ، كشفت الدراسة ايضا عن ان اكثر من ثلث سكان حضر مراكز اقضية محافظة واسط يعملون في انشطة الخدمات العامة والاجتماعية والشخصية ، كما تميزت الحالة الزواجية بارتفاع نسبة الذين لم يسبق لهم الزواج (العزاب) لتمثل اكثر من نصف السكان (51,8%) في عام 2015، وظهر ان نسبة غير المؤهلين بشهادة تعليمة تتجه نحو الانخفاض . وتوقعت الدراسة ان حجم سكان حضر مراكز اقضية محافظة واسط سيبلغ (839107) نسمة في عام 2027 بعد ان كان (633494) نسمة عام 2014. وتوقعت الدراسة ان عدد طلاب المدارس الابتدائية سيرتفع حتى يبلغ (122024) طالب عام 2027. اما طلاب المرحلة الثانوية فسيكون عددهم في سنة الهدف (112884) طالب . ومن المؤمل ايضا ان يرتفع عدد السكان النشطين اقتصاديا الى (695228) وستكون الحاجة الى (89834) وظيفة او فرصة عمل. وتبين من التحليل الكمي ان متغيري الاناث بسن الحمل والبطالة من اكثر المتغيرات تفسيرا للخصوبة السكانية ، كما ان هنالك علاقة ارتباط قوية بين الذين لم يسبق لهم الزواج (العزاب ) والبطالة | The study aims at highlighting the demographic characteristics of the population of the urban centers in Wasit governorate as one of the most promising areas in terms of its natural and human resources to achieve development projects, and as it is not possible to do any development work without depending on human development by studying the characteristics of the population and their vesources in the past and present and expect what they will be in the future . Thus, the population was demographically studied during the period (1987 - 2015) and making future projections until 2027. The study includes five chapters . The first chapter dealt with the size and growth of population . It is of two sections, The first section deals with The size and growth of population . and the second includes the elements of population growth. While the second chapter is for geographical distribution of population. It includes three sections . The first is about the numerical, relative and hierarchical distribution and relative change of population. While the second section deals with the scales of population distribution. the third section deals with patterns of the geographical distribution. The third chapter is under the title "the age and gender structure of of population". IT is divided into two sections. The first is for the the age and gender structure and the second included the indicators of the age structure. The fourth chapter is devoted for the economic structure . It contains three sections . the first section contains the characteristions of human forces . the second deals with the indicators of the economical activity, the third is a bout the wconomical structure of the labor . The fifth chapter includes the study of the social structure and the future projections. It is first deals with the study of the marital situation, the second with the study of the educational condition the third with the ethnic structure and the fourth section is devoted to studying population projections, and estimating educational services and estimating of work opportunities . The study adopted on statistical tables, distributive maps and graphs as well as many statistical and quantitative processes of correlative coefficience and regression and others for the accuracy of geographical analysis of population phenomena and their logical explanation of the relatio among the variables included in the study . The study reached many results, among them is rising of the proportion of population of urban of the districts centers Wasit governorate from on year. to another. As their percentage was (47.9%) in 1987 of the total population of the governorate reased in 2014 to (48.6%), Al - Kut district more than half of the proportion of population of urban of other districts centers in Wasit governorate. the movement of the displaced and the rural migration as well as the natural increase affected in the rising of growth rates which reached to (3.4%). The urban of the disdricds centres witnessed a drop in pure birth average which was(28,1)per thous and in 1987 to become (22.2) per thousand in 2015, and on the other hand a rise in pure death average which is (13.1) per thousand in 2015, while it was (7) Per thousand in 1987 due to security conditions . The urban of districts centres is characterized by receiving different immigration whether they were in ter national (of the population of the governorate who immigration abroad )regnioal or local especially after 2003 .they affected the demographic featues of population Of the population of the urban of district centers of Wasit Governorate. the population of the immigration population for the country reached to (17%) of the population of the urban of districts centres . The study showed that more than one - third of the population in the during (1987 - 2015) is the category of young (less than 15 years) the gender proportion of reached to (105) in 2014, the study also revealed that more than one - third of the population of the urban districts centers of Wasit governorate work in personal social and public service activities . the martial status is characterzid by rising the population of those who have never married before ( the single ) as it represents more than half of the population (51.8%) in 2015. and it showed that the percentage of non - qualified with educational certificate is declining. The study also showed that the draopping of illiteracy rates among the population and the low level of educational achievement led to the rising of the ratio of the unemployedment. the study predicted that the size of the population of urban of districts centres of wasit governorate will reach to (889,107) person in 2027while it was (633,494) person in 2014 . the study in also predicted that the number of primary school students will rise to reach (122,024) student in 2027 which means that there is a need for (80) primary schools while the number of the students of secondary stage will be in the target year (112884) students and they will need (120) schools to fill the shortfall of the number of schools at the time. it is hoped that th number of economically active population will increase to (695228) and there will be the need to (89834) jobs work opportunity . and appeared form the quantitative analysis that the two variables of females at the age of pregnaney and unemployment are the most explaining variables of population fertility ,and The size of the family (5 people and over) explains greatly the phenomenon of rural imigration to wards the urban of districts centers of the, and there is a strong correlation between those never married (the single) and unemployment.
