تطور الانفاق الاستهلاكي الحكومي وانعكاسه على هيكل الحساب الجاري في العراق للمدة (1990 - 2014) == The Evolution of Consumer Spending The Government And Its Reflection On The Current Account Structure In Iraq For The Period (1990 - 2014)
Author name:
محمد نوري داود المشعل
Supervisor name:
صلاح مهدي عباس البيرماني
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Master
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T4030 - p.pdf
Abstract:
لتجنب الاثار السلبية الناجمة عن ضعف مرونة الجهاز الانتاجي في الاستجابة للزيادة الحاصلة في الانفاق الاستهلاكي الحكومي قد يتم التوجه نحو الاستيرادات لسد الزيادة في الطلب المحلي الناجمة عن زيادة الانفاق الاستهلاكي الحكومي، وبما ان الاقتصاد العراقي اقتصاد ريع | To avoid the negative effects due to inflexibility of the domestic production in response to the increase in government consumption expenditure leads to more imports to meet the increase in domestic demand resulting from the increase in government consumption expenditure. Since the Iraqi economy, yield economy unilateral depends on oil revenues to finance spending, and the fact government consumer spending is a progressive high flexibility to increase in overall revenues, while being a regressive low flexibility in the event of reduced public revenues, and therefore lead to a deficit in the current account position. And that deficit caused by two imbalances, the imbalance of the government spending structure in favor of consumer spending and the imbalance of the current account structure, as the export of a single commodity is oil from which to finance the spending offset by a wide range of imports that are brought a large portion of this spending to it. Therefore the research aims to determine the impact of government consumer spending in the current account structure in light of increased government spending, through analysis the reality of government consumer spending and the current account structure in Iraq, and measure and analysis the impact of government consumer spending on the current account structure during the study period (1990 - 2014), has been using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model(ARDL), because of this form of advantages is the suitability for small samples and stationary data in the first - difference or the level or a combination of the two, The researcher has been found that the increase in the state of consumer spending, one of the main reasons to increase the current account deficit, as the increase in government consumption expenditure at one unit(million D.I) has led to the increase of imports of goods and services at (0.58) unit(million D.I) in the short term and at (1.16) million D.I in the long term, as the increased government consumption expenditure (1%) lead to increase in the visible and invisible trade account deficit, which represents the main component of the current account structure to (0.25%) in the long term and thereby increase the current account deficit, as well as the effect of money supply (M1) and the budget deficit in a current account in the long term if the increase (1%) in the money supply (M1) or the budget deficit lead to increased current account deficit by (0.38%) and (0.73%) respectively, while lead increased the budget deficit (1%) in the short term to increase the current account deficit rate of (0.45%), and a relationship from the budget deficit to the current account deficit confirms agreement the twin deficits theory with the reality of the Iraqi economy, and disagreement theory equivalent Alrikarda.
