قياس وتحليل دالة اجمالي تكوين راس المال الثابت للقطاع الزراعي في العراق للمدة 1980 - 2010 باستخدام نموذجي تصحيح الخطا (ECM) ونيرلوف للتكيفات الجزئية (NPA) == Measuring And Analysing Gross Fixed Capital Formulation Function For The Agriculture Sector In Iraq For The Period 1980 - 2010 Using Error Correction Model (ECM) And Nerlove Partial Adjustment (NPA)
Author name:
هيفاء يوسف سليمان
Supervisor name:
سعد عبد نجم عبد الله العبدلي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Master
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T4158 - p.pdf
Abstract:
رغم امتلاك العراق طاقات مادية وبشرية وموارد زراعية واقتصادية كبيرة الا ان مساهمة القطاع الزراعي في اجمالي تكوين راس المال الثابت والناتج المحلي الاجمالي في الاقتصاد العراقي ظلت منخفضة ومتناقصة باستمرار منذ عقد التسعينات من القرن الماضي، فضلا عن عدم قدرة | Despite of the availabihty of the Natural resources and production Capacities in Iraq economy , the relative conterbution of Agricultural Sector has been he very law and declining since 1990 's , and the food gab has increased to reach 1049 ton in 2010. Accordingly , there is a great need for measuring and Analysing the behavior of gross investment and gross capital formulation (Cap) function in agriculture sector of Iraq ,economy and determining the most effective variables such as the gross domestic product (Gdp). the most recent and suitable dynamic econometric Models were used such as Error Correction Model (ECM) and Nerlove Partial adjustment Model (N P A M) as a special case of the Autoregressive time lagged Model (VAR) , which best reflecting the dynamic long - run Relationship between (Cap) and (Gdp). These Two model are capable of analysing and explaining the Long - run equilibrium between these Two Variable despite the short - run discrepancy.The study contains three chapters : the first one deals with the theoretical framework of investment function and the economic theories and assumption that best reflect the behavior of Cap and its relation with Gdp. the Second chapter include the analysis of the currant and Potential of capital stock formulation (Cap) and gross domestic production (Gdp) in agriculture sector and other variable affecting then such as the investment expenditure and their in relative importance in Iraq economy ; while the third chapter deals with the measuring and analysing the Long - run relations between (Cap) and (Gdp) and estimating the (Cap) functions using (ECM) and (NPAM) econometrics Model using nominal and real prices. The result show that the compounding rates of growth for both Cap and Gdp were negative throughout the studied period (1980 - 2010) , and also declining the relevant importance of these variable in the Iraqi economy and it became about 0% during the period 2003 - 2010, which represent precut the after invasion of Iraq. The results also , show that there is a significant effect of Gdp on Cap in agriculture sector , and about 59% and 30% of the disequilibrium in Cap in the previous period (t - 1) can be removed in the current period (t) by changing or any shock in Gdp in nominal and real prices respectively.The short and long - run elasticties are also , estimated as 0.53% and 0.89% in path motional and real price , respectively.This means that a 1% changes in Gdp will result in 0.53% and 0.84% changes in Cap the nominal and real prices respectively. Many recommendation were mode including the necessity of increasing the Investment expenditure in agriculture sector in Iraq and insuring that these expenditures are directed to increase and develop the real production capacity in this sector. also , many government policies are needed to increase the effectiveness of investment and increasing the formulation rate of capital stock in agriculture sector such as price support Cap increase the cost effectiveness Through which the competiveness of Agriculture production is improved.
